By Siva Sivapragasam The contest for the next Presidency in Sri Lanka between incumbent President Mahinda Rajapakse and former Army Chief Sarath Fonseka will perhaps be based on who takes credit for winning the war against the LTTE. A cynic remarked “The war with the Tigers is over and the battle between the Lions has begun. According to political analysts the main reason why the Presidential Elections are being held two years ahead of schedule is the fear that the present popu- larity of the President on the vic- tory of the war may not last long.
However, the President has gone on record saying that he is sacri- ficing two years of his current Presidency for a mandate from the people to develop the country and also a chance for the voter in the North to choose a President. (Many of the voters in the North did not exercise their fran- chise during the last Presidential Elections). The Sinhala vote which is about 80 per cent of the total vote will perhaps be divided between the two leaving a bal- ance 20 per cent minority vote (Tamils in North, East & Colombo, Muslims, and upcountry Tamils).In terms of numbers, the winner will be the person who bags most from the minority vote (Tamil & Muslim) which is esti- mated at 1.2 million.
The Tamils may be forced with a dilemma of a Hobson’s Choice between the two contenders. The Sinhala vote will be split and the Tamil vote will be decisive. The Presidential Elections are scheduled to be held next month on January 26th..Certainly a bruising battle is in the offing. Come what may, the minority vote will decide who will be the next President of Sri Lanka.