Monsoon Journal

Kanayalal Raina It is a good sign that slowly there is deep realisation that ter- rorism is terrorism by whatever name one may call it. For long it has been a case of only the wear- er knowing where the shoe pinch- es. We in this State of Jammu and Kashmir were the first to witness the horrors of terrorism and then the country (India) have known the evil phenomenon through our tragic personal experiences. The world especially the afflu- ent part if it has woken up to the new realities after 9/11, 2001, in Manhattan (United States) fol- lowed by a series of similar das- tardly blood-stained occurrences in parts of the Europe. Terrorism has since then been recognised as a global threat. Admittedly, however, the earth has been scorched by it on differ- ent occasions even earlier mainly as a fall-out from the Middle-East tensions.

As pious an event as the Olympic Games has not escaped from its wicked influence. Who can ever forget the Munich mas- sacre of ambassadors of peace and brotherhood? The recent assertion by Mr Gilles de Kerchove, European Union’s counter-terrorism coordi- nator, is in tune with the prevalent universal perception. He has described Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) as a “very dangerous organisation with a global agenda and not a local agenda.” He has followed it up with a significant observation: “It is all but a good idea to fight India with proxy through terrorist organisations.” He has also noted that terrorist training camps are luring many people from Europe. One is not sure whether he has elaborated his statement as only a brief account of his speech at a seminar on Yemen in Brussels is available. Yet, there is a clear indication of what he implies. That the LeT is based in Pakistan is hardly a secret.

Till recently it has claimed to be focussing on our Jammu and Kashmir only. Hardly a week passes when its armed militants do not figure in encounters with Indian security forces on either side of the Pir Panjal. The happenings in the rest of India, France and the US in par- ticular have revealed that it has at the same time spread its wings. It is no more simply “Kashmir cen- tric” but has become a cog in a wider vicious game being led by Al Qaeda and Taliban. One securi- ty expert after the other has pointed out that almost all terror- ist organisations have joined hands motivated by a heady mix of religion and politics. For their part these outfits too have left no doubt that they are one in this deadly mission.

A case in point is the support that Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has received in carrying out its devastating strikes in the neighbouring country’s Punjab province and “Azad” Kashmir (as the occupied territory is locally known) where the likes of the LeT are firmly rooted as the dominant players on the extremist spec- trum. It is again only too well known that Pakistan moves hand in glove with these groups to cre- ate murder and mayhem in India — a grim reality that the top EU official has subtly underlined. Islamabad’s approach is not without irony. It seems to be least bothered that its very existence is under threat by least one such monster it has produced previ- ously. Terrorism does not spare its practitioners. It is high time that Pakistan realised this for its own sake. Is this a vain hope?

The brute, barbaric, inhuman and tragic killing of two unarmed innocent Sikhs in the hands of Taliban gives a clear message to the world community to frame and adopt a Comprehensive Convention on international ter- rorism to stem and check prolifer- ating menace which is endanger- ing the word peace and tranquili-ty. The captive Sikhs upheld the glorious tradition of the Sikh faith not to budge before the oppres- sors who were bent upon to con- vert them to Islam or pay the the `jaziya` (religious tax) Rs.3 crore ($750,000). The population of the Sikhs in Pakistan is estimated not more than 32000 and among them a sizable number had settled in Pakistan after mass exodus from Afghanistan when Taliban took power in Kabul. Sikhs preferred to live in Pakistan after the partition of India. They were loyal citizens of Pakistan but were treated as second class citizens and repent- ing there decision for the long 63 years. Now, there apprehensions about their safety are proving true.

Re. I. Selvaratnam mentioned about the need for a meditation center in Toronto during the course of his address at the farewell accorded to him by the Tamil Christian Church of Canada recently at the Milliken Methodist Church, Scarborough. He had served the TCCC for the last ten tears and he is being succeeded by Rev. Samuel Winson of the Methodist Church, Singapore. Vinson was also given a welcome at the same function. A meditation center was sug- gested by the late Rev. Bobby Mather who had requested Rev. Selvaratnam to work on its estab- lishment when he retires. Unfortunately the former had passed away suddenly and it is left for the latter to work solely on the envisaged project. Rev. Selvaratnam who took over the TCCC in 1999 had helped the church to grow and mature as a full-fledged institution.

At the appreciation service Messrs. S.Sellathurai, a founder member, Junesh Chinniah, the president, Tony Balasingam, the president - elect gave their words of appreci- ation of the services of the retir- ing pastor. Pradeepan Rajaratnam, administrative secre- tary read a Tamil Kavithai written by Shanthy Amalan, a church member extolling the services of the pothagar. Rev. Selvaratnem who had a varied experience as a pastor in Sri Lanka was able to cater to the needs of the immi- grant Tamil Christians who were keen on following the traditions they valued in Sri Lanka. With rich voice and majestic stature, Selvaratnam was able to appeal to the multigenerational, multi-denominational congrega- tion that is the TCCC. Enriched by his experience with the Ashram, the CSI and the Anglican Church of Srilanka, Rev.

Selvaratnam had the proper background to lead the Tamil Church of Canada which has a large influx of Tamil Christians from Sri Lanka. He had the knack of spicing his sermons with appropriate humorous anecdotes which attracted a large number of believers from all over Toronto and its suburbs especially during the festive seasons. He was an adept in making sermons conform to the biblical text he has chosen and deliver with ease and simplic- ity that no one ever complained that he was boring. He made it a point to keep his sermons ‘short and sweet.’ In Canada where you can’t find many pastors who can speak Tamil without mixing it with English, the’pothagar’ was an asset as he had the mastery of the native language with all its excellence. Mr. S. Sellathurai, a senior member said that he was instrumental in bringing Rev.

Selvaratnem to Canada and that his varied talents helped the church to grow in maturity and carve out a place for itself in the Tamil community in Canada. Jim Karygiannis, the Liberal MP for Scarborough honoured the pastor by his presence and thanked him for his services to the Tamil community for over a decade. Junesh Chinnaiah, the incumbent president expressed his deep gratitude and warmest wishes with feelings of indebted- ness. Tony Balasingam, the pres- ident elect thanked the retiring pothagar for his fruits of labour in the service of the Lord. He men- tioned about his TV ministry, hos- pital ministry, home ministry, Bible study and the Brampton service. Ravi Thirugnanam welcomed the new pastor, Rev. Dr. Samuel Vinson and his family and intro- duced him to the congregation.

The pastoral search committee chose him from 15 applicants and that accounts for his fitness for the vocation. With a doctorate and several years of service amongst Tamil congregations in Singapore he said he is confident that Vinson proves to be a worthy successor to Selvaratnam and lead the TCCC with tremendous zeal to win more souls to Christ. Rev. Vinson in his remarks thanked the TCCC for giving him the opportunity to serve in Toronto which he never expected he would when he visited Canada several years ago after he fin- ished his doctoral studies at the US. The gathering was hosted with a sumptuous lunch at the church parish- hall during which many members and friends were able to meet both pastors and exchange greetings. God has his mysterious ways and he guides his people’ through all the chang- ing scenes of life.’ jjatputharajah

By Arvind Luxman The January 26 Presidential Elections are long over and, like its predecessor in 2005 that also returned the same candidate Mahinda Rajapakse, was steeped in doubt and controversy. The weak UNP and the weaker still Ranil Wickramasinghe were unable to capitalize on this alleged fraud and so the opposi- tion - that includes the usually mercurial JVP and Mangala Samaweera - have abandoned what the international community would have viewed as a valid objection. Sri Lanka (Ceylon before 1972) that boasted of illustrious Leaders of the Opposition like SWRD, Dr. N.M. Perera, Dudley Senanayake, JR Jayawardena, A. Amirthaligam - to name a few that earned the respect of pro- ducing admirable alternate Governments now finds her brand of parliamentary democracy under question. The choice before Lankan Tamils within the Island and the influential diaspora is how will Tamils vote this time. The world was surprised the larger number of voters in the Tamil and Muslim communities – the two large com- munities after the Sinhalese pop- ulation-wise - overwhelmingly voted in favour of Gen. Sarath Fonseka.

Only a few months back he was despised by the Tamils as one whose avowed aim was to politically and numerically render the Tamil community into gradual extinction. In his own pronounce- ments before he changed into military uniform, Fonseka pleased many Sinhala hearts insisting the island belongs only to the Sinhalese. He added Tamils and others might just as well `behave – or else“ Unsurprisingly, his tone and attitude changed once he became a Presidential candidate. Millions of Sinhalese were sur- prised when the fire-breathing General was found bowed-head in prayer at the venerated Nallur Kandasamy Temple in the histori- cal land of the Tamils in tradition- al dhoti, pottu and kumkum as devout Hindus do.

Whatever his inner intentions may have been, millions in the island – more so the overwhelm- ingly Tamils inhabiting the North East Province - welcomed the gesture in the belief the mindset of the hardline Sinhalese is going through a sea-change. This includes many of those seen as anti-Tamil and obstinately unyielding on the National Question - the radical JVP, the racially-charged JHU party domi- nated by politically active monks. The choice before the main grouping of the Tamil political for- mation - Tamil National Alliance - lead by senior politician R. Sampanthan - is unenviable. Although the Rajapakse Brothers are reported to have made the TNA many assurances to join their Alliance, the TNA eventually decided to lend their support last January to Gen. Fonseka pointing Mr, Rajapakse had many years while he was in power to bring relief and justice to Tamils. Sampanthan speaking for the TNA said Rajapakses failed to honour these after he assumed the powerful position of Executive President.

The choice before the Tamils in the Jan 26 elections was unen- viable. They had to chose between the man giving the orders to the almost entirely Sinhala army in his role as C-in-C to bring the Tamils to their knees or to the man physically carrying it out enthusiastically on the ground in his role of the all-pow- erful Army Commander. In that personification Fonseka cared tuppence to established International Protocols on modern warfare or Human Rights either to Tamil combatants or nearly a mil- lion civilian Tamils in the NEP. The NEP political leadership is under pressure both from the vot- ers and the diaspora for a change in the existing political represen- tation in Parliament.

The fresh faces one sees and the removal of some old in the current lists of candidates of the main Tamil par- ties points out this view has received attention. In spite of the meeting in Geneva a few months ago of the Tamil-speaking parties aimed at speaking in one single voice this did not happen - neither was one seriously expected among the quarrelling interests. This lacking will weaken them in that necessary bargaining power in a Sinhala-dominated Parliament of 225 where the com- bined NEP Tamil seats will be around 25 only.

That section of the Tamil dias- pora with its own sympathies to the LTTE seems to be gaining ground now with their Project of the Trans National Government of Tamil Eelam getting a boost in the very premises of the British. The well-attended Global Tamil Forum meeting recently in the premises of the British Parliament has incensed GoSL and the Sinhala supremacists. The presence and the encouraging addresses of key players in the Labour govern- ment and the Conservative Govt- in-Waiting should awaken the Rajapakse regime to the reality the world at large – and particu- larly Western countries whose aid and commercial imperatives are vital to Sri Lanka’s economic sur- vival bear support to the Tamil clamour for justice.

They share the widely held view the Rajapakse regime has done little to address the problem albeit sufficient time and resources in hand. It is true the influential Tamil diaspora can do little to alter the voting pattern in Sri Lanka because almost all of them are nationals of other coun- tries. But to ignore them will be at the peril of the Rajapakses. Their voice is articulated through legis- latures and the politically power- ful in the USA, Canada, Britain, Germany, France, Switzerland, Norway, Australia, South Africa, and Malaysia - to list the countries where the Tamil diaspora is con- centrated. It is now a global real- ity in those countries where their own nationals are subject to pro- longed discrimination, the inter- national community has a recog- nized role to play.

The Diaspora is proceeding with its Agenda that also includes provisions for Diaspora Tamils to vote in Sri Lanka. They model this on the Israeli example where Israelis anywhere in the world can vote in the Knesset Elections. Many of these Israelis flown into the Elections to vote in the elec- tions are dual Citizens – a provi- sion the Tamil diaspora is examin- ing. Many in Sri Lanka will be sur- prised to learn the Rajapakse gov- ernment is also in consultation with several representative enti- ties of the Tamil diaspora.

The talks, inter alia, is said also to include dual-citizenship. Meanwhile, the opposition to the TNA in the North will come from Douglas Devananda`s EPDP, PLOTE and from the TNA break- aways like young Gajendran Ponnambalam now leading Tamil National People’s Front. The newly formed TNPF is likely to eat into TNA votes with its call for a Confederation, the 2-Nation for- mulae and the claim to the right to secede - in case Colombo con- tinues to procrastinate.

The Karuna-Pillaiyan schism in the Batticaloa District will cause con- cern both to the TNA and the gov- ernment. Karuna`s decline from once- admired fearless Tamil field com- mander to his much advertised debauchery and deplorable way- ward conduct will not find favour with voters in the EP who respect conventional family integrity from the man of the house. Kidnappings in ubiquitous white vans where many have been fond dead; coercion, intimidation in daily life in the NEP and the Colombo District by favoured Tamil politicians within the gov- ernment are very much in the minds of Tamil voters.

The more of the analytical voters among the Tamils are con- scious - with dwindling resources and a skeptical IMF- WB and the Donor community, the Rajapakse government is unlikely to carry out the grandiose promises to “develop Tamil lands” in the NEP to the required levels and speed. They would rather use the inade- quate resource availability to develop the Sinhala South – their main vote base for their own political survival. Predictably, there can be a few hand-outs here and there in the Tamil areas more for cosmetic purposes.

These are unlikely to gain those features to make the besieged Tamils to rejoin the Sri Lankan family – meaningful devo- lution to run their own affairs, rapid infra-structural development of the NEP. These ideally to include water resources, the repair and building up of main roads, bridges, restoration of HSZ lands/farms, industrialization employment generation, building new/redoing hospitals, schools, places of worship destroyed by the war, modernization and development of the agricultural and fishing industries - being the chief among the more urgent. Admittedly, there has been some improvement in road transport, provision of electricity and in some other areas.

Signs of the return to normal life, denied to Tamils under LTTE rule, has engaged Tamil favour as the people yearn a life of peace and quiet. The arrival of millions of Sinhalese from the South has brought in infra-structure strains in a part of the country that is still to get back on its feet. Complaints of questionable behaviour by the less cultured among the Sinhala visitors desecrating Hindu tem- ples, hooting at Tamil girls riding in bicycles and other lack of civili- ty certainly engages Tamil dis- favour and needs to be looked at by the authorities.

NEP Tamils are conscious of Sinhala sensitivities of the day and do not expect everything to happen at once. But the fact the Rajapakse government under-performed since 2005 when the LTTE was considerably weakened since May 2009 when they were entire- ly removed from the scene – are vital areas in which the govern- ment had space to re-establish its confidence with the Tamils in the NEP. They fell short here. Yet, the Rajapakse brothers are shrewd tacticians and spare little effort to win the Tamil side.

This week S.C. Chandrasan, who camped in Madras/Chennai for nearly 3 decades, returned to the Island and surprisingly asks the Tamils to work out a formulae to live with the Sinhalese. This call by the son-in- law of Thanthai Chelva will not be lost on the Tamils. The Tamils in the Plantation areas are a different cup of tea. Thondaman’s fortunes, in a way, are in the ascendancy with his main rival Chandrasekeran gone. He has re-established his confi- dence with the Rajapakse regime in the Presidential Election – where he chose well to hitch his CWC with the Rajapakse wagon.

If he can produce over 8 CWC MPs on April 08 Thondaman is assured of a plum Ministry - that he enjoyed in 2001/2002. It is unlikely the break-away of veter- an CWC TU man M.S. Sellasamy, Yogarajan or Satchithananthan will in any way substantially weaken him. In the same vein, the going in the Central Province and Nuwara Eliya District in par- ticular is not going to be easy.

Men like Sathasivam, Rajaratnam, Vadivel Suresh, Digambaram, Puthrasigamoney, Mano Ganesan will trouble him in the April elec- tions. But the CWC resources and network, his own considerable electoral skills may retain for him the dominant position as leader of the people of recent Indian origin - the undisputed mantle of the legendary Saunyamoorthy Thondaman.

Tamils in the Colombo and Gampaha Districts may, this time, decide to go with the Rajapakse government since the UNP is woefully divided, unsure of itself in its own leadership. By the man- ner the UNP is going about it appears to have conceded the elections to the Rajapakses already with serial-loser Ranil Wickremasinghe fated to remain in the opposition. Monsoon Opinion “Will Post-April 08 bring Lankans closer?”  Contd. in Page 48…

By Chanackiyan The end of the 26-year civil war has left Tamils on the island of Sri Lanka and around the world at a critical juncture in our collec- tive history. Tamils have not only lost tens of thousands of our own, but the community’s position at the bargaining table has been weakened. As Tamils in Sri Lanka and Diaspora go forward, the question becomes how the com- munity rebounds to become a political force to be reckoned with once again. If the community hopes to bargain with strength about our future, it is essential that Tamils stand together, in unity won through open and vigorous debate, from the North to the South to the East to the West. The road ahead will not be easy as forces against this unity are many.

Since 2005, President Mahinda Rajapaksa has used all types of methods to strengthen his power and weaken all those who opposed him. During his first term, he weakened the opposition in the South, UNP and JVP and today, he is applying the same theory in a different way towards the Tamil polity. On the ground, divisions have emerged. Before May 2009, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) had 22 MPs. Two of the 22 were sacked, M.K. Sivajilingam and N. Sri Kantha, while the other three joined with Rajapaksa:

Kishore Sivanathan, Kanagasabai Kanagaratnam and Thangeshwari Kadirgamar. Meanwhile, one, Jayananda Moorthy stayed over- seas. Only two were denied tick- ets, Selvarajah Gajendran and Pathmini Sithamparanathan. Is a fair reason to split a for- midable force like the TNA over two nominations? Furthermore, the only party contesting every electorate in the traditional Tamil homelands is the TNA. Areas like Trincomalee, Ampara, and Batticaloa are already particularly in danger of losing Tamil representation due to colonization, militarization and interference from Colombo. During the last 100 years, the Sinhalese population in Trincomalee, Ampara, and Batticaloa has increased substan- tially and the Tamil population has been reduced to a much smaller majority.

The most vulnerable of these areas is Trincomalee, which the TNA won last time through fielding two candidates. If the vote is split and a non-Tamil can- didate is elected in Trincomalee, the little voice that Tamils in Trincomalee, dubbed as the capi- tal city of Tamil Eelam, will be weakened even further. But things will not stop there. Already, these divisions have created havoc in the vulnerable areas such as Ampara, Batticaloa, Vanni dis- tricts. This writer is pretty sure if we don’t do the damage control and back TNA whole-heartedly, the Tamil representation on the whole island in the upcoming parliament will be weakened forever and the ultimate losers will be the Tamil population. If Tamil National Liberation Alliance (TNLA) had genuine con- cerns, it could have fielded candi- dates in all areas in the tradition- al Tamil homelands and asked for the mandate from the community. But the TNLA’s decision to field candidates in only the vulnerable constituencies such as Trincomalee raises serious ques- tions. Is there a hidden hand behind them to weaken Tamil rep- resentation on the island of Sri Lanka?

Who will their actions benefit the most? This is the time diplomacy and logic must be used to get back into the political scene instead of succumbing to emotional and inaccurate arguments and becom- ing a spent force. The accusations the TNLA throws around revolve around TNA leader, R.Sampanthan, being out of touch with core nationalism principles. Anyone who listens to his speeches or reads TNA’s state- ments knows how false this argu- ment is. Sampanthan has stayed true to the traditional Thimphu princi- ples and no one can find fault with him for that. However, TNLA is fielding candidates who have stood against Tamil nationalism and switched parties. In contrast, the TNA is fielding candidates who have impeccable records when it comes to the people and the nationalism question. It’s our historic duty to back the TNA and help ensure the Tamil representation grows strong on the island of Sri Lanka so Tamils can be a political force to be reckoned with in the years to come. Time to back Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in Sri Lanka parliamentary polls Rajavarothayam Sampanthan

The business community in the north Sri Lankan Tamil-speak- ing district of Jaffna is ready to welcome Indian investments and development projects amidst them, in spite of the fact that they, like the people of the dis- trict, harbour strong anti-Indian feelings, P.K. Balachandran of the Indian Express wrote from Jaffna recently. In a report published in The Express Buzz he added: A Jaffna man blames India for the defeat of the LTTE. “India had failed to stop the last leg of the war between the Lankan forces and the LTTE and prevent the killing of thousands of Tamil civil- ians,” they complained. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi only enacted a “drama” in support of the Tamils here, they sneered. However, Jaffna is safe for Indian investors and business- men, assured R Janakumar, pres- ident of the Jaffna Chamber of Commerce.

“We would like Indian compa- nies to participate in the trade fair the chamber is holding from March 27 to 29. It costs only SL Rs 30,000 to book a stall,” he said. The businessmen and others Express spoke to made it clear that they had fraternal feelings towards Indians. The issue was with the government in Delhi and the ruling party in Tamil Nadu, they stressed. The general feeling here is that Congress leader Sonia Gandhi had punished people for a crime they did not commit. Whatever the feelings of the locals, India seems determined to invest in Jaffna heavily. It has announced a credit line of Indian Rs 500 crore for the Tamil-speak- ing north and East. India is set- ting up a cultural centre and a technical training institute for $5 million in Jaffna. India would also supply 800,000 cement bags for distribution among 100,000 Tamil war refugee families.

US $8.5 mil- lion has been allocated to the seven Indian de-mining teams working in the war zone. Members of the chamber acknowledged that after three decades of extreme sluggishness, trade in Jaffna was booming, with the full opening of the land route to Sri Lankan citizens. Shops are overflowing with goods, which are also selling goods at lower prices when compared to Colombo. “Now, only 10 to 15 per cent of the lorries go out of Jaffna carry local goods for the south Sri Lankan market. Others return empty. But before the war, more goods went out of Jaffna as com- pared to the amount that came in,” Janakumar said. “A third of the land area has been a High Security Zone (HSZ) since the 1980s. Our economy cannot improve if the HSZs are not reduced drastically,” Janakumar said. “As for industries, we need soft loans. Under the Vadakkin Vasantham scheme we get soft loans but the maximum is only SL Rs 200,000,” he pointed out. Employment generation is possi- ble only through industrialisation and the backlog is high.

Kanayalal Raina The London Conference of January 28 went along with the British Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s proposal to set up a $ 500 million trust fund to buy “peace and integration” with the fighters who are engaged in vio- lence for economic rather than ideological reasons. The intention is to reintegrate “low and medium level” Taliban fighters through offer of jobs for defectors and the promise of protection of American-led special forces. However, British Prime Minister warned that for those insurgents who refuse to accept the condi- tions for reintegration “we have no choice but to pursue them mil- itarily”.

This springs from a reali- sation that the hard core ele- ments, who matter in so far as insurgency is concerned, will not accept the amnesty offer. The latest Western move in Afghanistan, born out of the desire to start pulling out troops from mid-2011, is based on an erroneous assumption that a resurgent Taliban will fall for allurement and abandon their goal of re-taking the country, which they think is achievable. The disarray in the camp of the United States and its allies and US President Barack Obama’s reluc- tant decision on a short-term surge of some 40,000 more sol- diers, is far too evident to be missed by Taliban in the battle- field and their patron, Pakistan, which has flatly refused to evict Al Qaeda and Taliban insurgents from its tribal areas after a show of military action in Swat and south Waziristan that led to the insurgents moving to safer areas without losing many fighters. President Hamid karzai, sullen and soured with the US that wants to get rid of him, is in no position to resist the new strategy but insists that only those Taliban will be pardoned who do not belong to Al Qaeda, join the mainstream and work within the democratic Afghan constitution.

He is being repeatedly insulted by parliament, which has so far refused to approve the full com- plement of his Cabinet ministers, forcing him to administer oaths in instalments — there still being a dozen vacancies to be filled. A hasty US withdrawal will spell disaster for war-ravaged Afghanistan and pose a grave threat to regional security and stability. India, which is fully involved in Afghanistan’s recon- struction — which is disliked by Taliban and openly objected to by Pakistan — will face increased ter- rorist threat once Taliban and Al Qaeda somehow manage to take control of the country.

US special representative Richard Holbrooke argued the new reconciliation policy is solely guided by the consideration to prevent further American and other casualties. An opportunity was being offered to get the shooters off the field so that they do not kill soldiers and civilians. Last year was the worst so far for the foreign soldiers and Afghan civilians — with the highest casu- alties so far. US officials believe that the majority of Taliban forces do not back Al Qaeda or embrace extremist goals, nor are they ide- ological supporters of Mulla Omar or Osama Bin Laden. At least 70 per cent of them are not fighting for any of the causes and majori- ty of the people blame Taliban, and not the US forces, for their misery.

Yet, there are “red lines” that could not be crossed during nego- tiations with Taliban fighters and those who back Al Qaeda or sup- port the group’s harsh treatment of women, would not be recom- mended. By making them stop fighting future casualties would be prevented. There still is no clearly defined plan on reconcilia- tion and reintegration of the Taliban within the establishment. Pakistan, which claims to be best qualified to bring about reconcili- ation and reintegration is ready with the list of Taliban “contacts” to become the “honest” mediators between the West and Taliban, increasing their cache and nui- sance value. In a sign of how seri- ous the West has become, the United Nations removed five top Taliban commanders from its sanctions list to facilitate reconcil- iation. These include former foreign minister Abdul Wakil Muttawakil, former deputy Foreign Minister Faiz Mohammed Faizan, an official under the Taliban Shams-us-Safa and Mohammad Musa

. They were under travel ban and assets freeze. In the initial stages of the war, the US and Pakistan had tried to utilise the services of Muttawakil to argue with the Taliban leadership to halt all mili- tary action and agree to reconcili- ation. But his efforts did not bear fruit and the Taliban leadership refused to negotiate with the US and its allies. Mulla Omar has repeatedly said that attempts to divide the Taliban would not suc- ceed and that peace was possible on the condition that all foreign forces are withdrawn from Afghanistan and the people allowed to choose for themselves the form of government they wanted, without any outside interference. There are no indica- tions so far that Omar and his associates have changed their stand.

In the changed policy of the US, Pakistan sees an opportunity - - to reassert its influence in shap- ing the future set up in Afghanistan after foreign forces have withdrawn in a couple of years. Islamabad supports a dif- ferentiation between Taliban seg- ments, including being soft towards the Afghan Taliban, which was sponsored by Pakistan Army’s Inter-Services Intelligence. On the face of it, the new US strategy may not work because Taliban now sense victory within grasp as NATO forces get more are more exasperated and demor- alised at the course of a war with- out end.

A-vast majority of the Afghan do not want the Taliban back and their country being pushed again into the dark ages. But little security is available to them. The risk of Taliban retribu- tion is so great that few are pre- pared actively to resist the insur- gents. Hence the need to deal with hardcore Taliban militarily and defeat them, while simultane- ously building effective gover- nance, providing security to the people, intensifying reconstruc- tion and strengthening secular and democratic institutions. There is also need for a regional agree- ment to ensure peace and neu- trality in Afghanistan after foreign forces have left. India has a role to play in ensuring regional secu- rity and must share responsibility with other players.

By Luxman-Arvind

The January 26 Presidential Elections are over and, like its predecessor in 2005 that also returned the same candidate Mahinda Rajapakse, is bathed in doubt and controversy. The “results” in both were challenged. The appeal against the January 26 Presidential Election is now before the country’s highest judi- cial body. Convincing arguments for the victory and the challenge remain in a part of the world where election victories are ques- tioned - more as a rule than exception.

The graceful yielding of Al Gore to George Bush (Jr) in prob- ably the most bitterly contested Presidential Election in US history - “in the interest of the nation’s unity” is not a culture we are like- ly to see in Lankan region for quite a while.

The choice before Lankan Tamils within the Island and the influential diaspora is how will Tamils vote this time. The world was surprised the larger number of voters in the Tamil and Muslim communities - the two large com- munities after the Sinhalese pop- ulation-wise - overwhelmingly voted in favour of Gen. Sarath Fonseka - although a few months back he was feared by the Tamils as one whose avowed aim was to politically and numer- ically render the Tamil community into gradual oblivion.

In his own pronouncements before he changed into military uniform, Fonseka pleased many Sinhala hearts insisting the island belongs only to the Sinhalese. He added Tamils and others might just as well “behave - or else” Unsurprisingly, his tone and atti- tude changed once he became a Presidential candidate. Millions of Sinhalese were surprised when the fire-breathing General was found bowed-head in prayer at the venerated Nallur Kandasamy Temple in the historical land of the Tamils in his election cam- paign - in traditional dhoti, pottu and kumkum as devout Hindus do.

Tamil votes were found to be crucial for victory. Whatever his inner intentions may have been, millions in the island - more so the overwhelmingly Tamils inhab- iting the North East Province wel- comed the gesture in the belief the mindset of the hardline Sinhalese is going through a sea- change. This includes many of those seen as anti-Tamil and obstinately unyielding on the National Question-the radical JVP, the racially-charged JHU party dominated by politically active monks. Many identified with nar- row Sinhala supremacist ideology are joining in too - the influential Buddhist clerical hierarchy in the different Sects.

The choice before the main grouping of the Tamil political for- mation - Tamil National Alliance - lead by senior politician R. Sampanthan - is unenviable. Although the Rajapakse Brothers are reported to have made the TNA many assurances to join their Alliance, the TNA eventually decided to lend their support to Gen. Fonseka pointing Mr, Rajapakse had many years while he was in power to bring relief and justice to Tamils. Sampan- than speaking for the TNA said Rajapakses failed to honour these after he assumed the pow- erful position of Executive President . The choice before the Tamils in the Jan 26 elections was bizarre.

They had to chose between the man giving the orders to the almost entirely Sinhala army in his role as C-in-C to bring the Tamils to their knees or to the man phys- ically carrying it out enthusiasti- cally on the ground in his role of the all-powerful Army Comman- der. In that personification Fonseka cared tuppence to estab- lished International Protocols on modern warfare or Human Rights either to Tamil combatants or nearly a million civilian Tamils in the NEP.

The NEP political leadership is under pressure both from the vot- ers and the diaspora for a change in the existing political represen- tation in Parliament. The fresh faces one sees and the removal of some old in the current lists of candidates of the main Tamil par- ties points out this view has received attention. In spite of the recent meeting in Geneva aimed at unity, Tamil political parties have failed to work out a pro- gramme of coming together to speak in a single voice. This lack- ing will weaken them in that nec- essary bargaining power in a Sinhala-dominated Parliament of 225 where the combined NEP Tamil seats will be around 25 only. That section of the Tamil diaspora with its own sympathies to the LTTE seems to be gaining ground now with their Project of the Trans National Government of Tamil Eeelam getting a boost.

The well-attended Global Tamil Forum meeting last week in the premises of the British Parliament has incensed GoSL. The presence and the encourag- ing addresses of key players in the Labour government and th Conservative Govt-in-Waiting should awaken the Rajapakse regime to the reality the world at large - and particularly Western countries whose aid and commer- cial imperatives are vital to Sri Lanka’s economic survival bear support and sympathy to Tamils. They share the widely held view the Rajapakse regime has done little to address the problem with time and resources in hand.

It is true the influential Tamil diaspora can do little to alter the voting pattern in Sri Lanka because almost all of them are nationals of other counries. But to ignore them will be at the peril of the Rajapakses because their voice is articulated through legis- latures in the USA, Canada, Britain, Germany, France, Switzerland, Norway, Australia, Malaysia - to list the countries where the Tamil diaspora is con- centrated. It is now a global real- ity in those instances nationals of their own countries are subject to prolonged discrimation, the inter- national community has a recog- nised role to play.

The Diaspora is proceeding with its Agenda that also includes provisions for Diaspora Tamils to vote in Sri Lanka. They model this on the Israeli example where Israelis anywhere in the world can vote in the Knesset Elections. Many of these Israelis flown into the Elections to vote in the elec- tions are dual Citizens - a provi- sion the Tamil diaspora is examin- ing. Many in Sri Lanka will be sur- prised to learn the Rajapakse gov- ernment is also in consultation with several representative enti- ties of the Tamil diaspora. The talks, inter alia, is said also to include dual-citizenship.

Meanwhile, the opposition to the TNA in the North will come from Douglas Devananda’s EPDP, PLOTE and, to a lesser, extent from the TNA breakaways like young Gajendran Ponnambalam, Shivajilingam (the latter per- formed poorly in the last Presidential Elections) and a few others. The Karuna-Pillaiyan schism in the Batticaloa District will cause concern both to the TNA and the government. Karuna`s decline from once- admired fearless Tamil field com- mander to his much advertised debauchery and deplorable way- ward conduct will not find favour with voters in the EP who respect conventional family integrity from the man of the house. Kindnappings in ubiquitous white vans where many have been fond dead; coercion, intimidation in daily life in the NEP and the Colombo District by favoured Tamil politicians within the gov- ernment are very much in the minds of Tamil voters.

The more of the analytical voters among the Tamils are con- scious - with dwindling resources and a skeptical IMF- WB and the Donor community, the Rajapakse government is unlikely to carry out the grandiose promises to “develop Tamil lands” in the NEP. They would rather use the inade- quate resource availability to develop the Sinhala South - their main vote base for their own political survival. Predictably, there can be a few hand-outs here and there in the Tamil areas more for cosmetic purposes.

They are unlikely to gain those features to make the besieged Tamils to rejoin the Sri Lankan family - meaningful devo- lution to run their own affairs, rapid infra-structural development of the NEP`This ideally to include water resources, the repair and building up of main roads, bridges, restoration of HSZ lands/farms, industrialization employment generation, building newére-doing hospitals, schools, places of worship destroyed by the war, modernisation and development of the agricultural and fishing industries - being the chief among the more urgent. Admittedly, there has been visible improvement in road transport, provision of electricity - that makes Tamil think favourably.

Signs of the return to normal life, denied to Tamils under LTTE rule, has engaged Tamil favour as the people yearn a life of peace and quiet. The much-hyped train services to KKS, more affordable air services - will go a long way to restore Tamil confidence. NEP Tamils are conscious of Sinhala sensitivities of the day and do not expect everything to happen at once. But the fact the Rajapakse government under-performed since 2005 when the LTTE was considerably weakened and since May 2009 when they were entire- ly removed from the scene - are vital areas in which the govern- ment had space to re-establish its confidence with the Tamils in the NEP.

The Tamils in the Plantation areas are a different cup of tea. Thondaman’s fortunes, in a way, are in the ascendancy with his main rival Chandrasekeran gone. He has re-established his confi- dence with the Rajapakse regime in the Presidential Election - where he chose well to hitch his CWC with the Rajapakse wagon. If he can producec over 8 CWC MPs on April 08 Thondaman is assured of a plum Ministry - that he enjoyed in 2001/2002. It is unlikely the break-away of veter- an CWC TU man M.S. Sellasamy, Yogarajan or Satchithananthan will in any way substantially weaken him.

In the same vein, the going in the Central Province and Nuwara Eliya District in particular is not going to be easy. Men like Sathasivam, Vadivel Suresh, Digambaram, Puthrasigamoney, Mano Ganesan will trouble him in the April elections. But the CWC resources and network, his own considerable electoral skills may retain for him the dominant posi- tion as leader of the people of recent Indian origin - the undis- puted mantle of the legendary leader and King of Malainadu - the late Saunyamoorthy Thondaman.

Tamils in the Colombo and Gampaha Districts may, this time, decide to go with the Rajapakse government since the UNP is woefully divided, unsure of itself in its own leadership. By the man- ner the UNP is going about it appears to have conceded the elections to the Rajapakses already with serial-loser Ranil Wickremasinghe fated to remain in the opposition.

The incarcerated Sarath Fonseka is unlikely to repeat his own performance in the January 26 Presidential Elections. His own Coalition is in shatters where the State used its mighty media and propaganda juggernaut to its advantage. The divided JVP under Somawansa Amarasinghe- Tilvin Silva probably will not come close to their Parliamentary har- vest of 2004. The break-away JVP faction under the inspiration of the charismatic Wimal Weera- wansa too is under attack.

Weerawansa`s shift from his home-base Kalutara to the Colombo District will be ques- tioned. The concern of the Buddhist voters country-wide about the un-buddhistic conduct of the JHU in the political snake- pit is shown in most of the mili- tant monks removed from JHUs own list of candidates. With their opposition divided, weakened or rendered to confusion the Rajapakse brothers are aiming on a 2/3rd majority.

As one saw in the Post-May 2009 period and the Presidential Elections Sri Lanka can come out with the unpredictable and the most incredible. April 08 can sill spring surprises although as at date it looks like the Rajapakses - who have no compunction in mis- using the States considerable resources - may see the continu- ation of their good fortune in a country where the poltical high and mighty believe deeply in Astrology. Who will see fortune smiling on them and who will see “stars” will be determined in about 5 weeks from now in the beautiful and calm island once known as the Pearl of the Indian Ocean - but now no more than an Island of Tears.